* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012022 06/06/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 56 52 47 45 37 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 56 52 47 45 37 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 57 54 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 38 36 35 37 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 2 7 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 260 260 246 242 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.0 23.8 22.7 22.1 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 109 101 95 92 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 99 93 88 86 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.6 2.3 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 53 48 47 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 26 26 24 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 59 89 137 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 36 43 14 28 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 2 -4 5 -10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 768 949 994 999 1032 908 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.8 34.5 35.4 36.3 38.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.0 65.6 63.2 60.4 57.7 51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 23 24 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 21 CX,CY: 18/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. -24. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -22. -27. -31. -35. -38. -41. -45. -48. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -13. -15. -23. -30. -37. -42. -48. -52. -56. -61. -65. -70. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 33.0 68.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ALEX 06/06/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ALEX 06/06/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ALEX 06/06/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 56 52 47 45 37 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 52 47 45 37 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 47 45 37 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 45 43 35 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT