* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012022 06/06/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 59 56 52 44 41 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 59 56 52 44 41 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 60 57 54 51 48 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 32 37 32 37 46 46 36 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 3 -4 0 8 1 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 259 260 263 247 252 244 256 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.1 24.0 23.5 21.8 21.6 21.9 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 114 110 101 98 88 86 87 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 104 100 92 88 80 78 78 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -55.5 -58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.5 2.5 2.0 1.8 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 55 50 42 29 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 27 26 25 26 30 26 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 27 35 56 94 146 122 70 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 72 29 46 12 45 -16 -21 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 36 16 -4 -3 -1 18 9 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 651 796 972 1036 1065 1176 1267 1266 1266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.9 33.6 34.2 34.7 35.3 35.3 35.6 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.1 67.8 65.4 63.0 60.6 56.3 52.7 49.7 46.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 21 21 21 19 16 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. -22. -24. -27. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -15. -20. -25. -28. -31. -34. -37. -41. -43. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -6. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -8. -16. -19. -29. -44. -49. -54. -58. -61. -64. -66. -69. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 32.1 70.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ALEX 06/06/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ALEX 06/06/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ALEX 06/06/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 59 56 52 44 41 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 54 50 42 39 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 49 41 38 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 46 38 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT