* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012022 06/05/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 54 52 44 37 28 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 54 52 44 37 28 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 55 53 48 44 39 33 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 29 28 33 29 31 39 49 33 37 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 3 -1 1 9 1 -6 1 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 254 262 263 263 254 253 267 279 286 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.6 22.9 21.5 22.1 21.8 20.7 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 115 112 105 94 87 88 85 80 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 105 102 96 85 79 79 75 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -55.0 -56.0 -57.6 -58.4 -58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 65 61 60 55 48 39 26 20 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 24 24 23 21 20 18 12 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 41 34 29 45 107 104 60 -14 -37 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 109 68 43 42 22 38 -8 -18 4 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 43 32 23 -5 -1 -3 9 18 2 -1 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 569 658 766 934 1044 1139 1281 1309 1358 1368 1345 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.7 32.4 33.1 33.7 34.5 34.7 35.0 34.9 35.2 35.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.5 70.5 68.4 66.0 63.7 59.2 55.0 51.3 48.9 47.3 46.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 20 21 20 18 16 12 8 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -20. -24. -29. -32. -35. -39. -41. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -21. -30. -33. -34. -34. -33. -32. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -3. -11. -18. -27. -40. -52. -59. -62. -65. -67. -69. -70. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 30.9 72.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ALEX 06/05/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.84 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.17 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 12.8% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ALEX 06/05/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ALEX 06/05/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 54 52 44 37 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 52 50 42 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 47 39 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 35 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT