* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012022 06/05/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 52 51 49 44 34 27 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 52 51 49 44 34 27 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 53 52 49 45 40 36 34 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 32 31 30 35 30 31 37 32 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 7 4 -2 4 -4 -3 -8 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 248 248 252 259 255 250 254 276 284 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.1 26.1 25.8 25.5 24.2 22.4 21.7 22.3 21.7 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 118 115 113 103 91 87 88 83 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 107 107 104 102 93 83 79 78 73 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.9 -55.9 -57.2 -57.6 -58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 65 63 63 53 48 38 37 38 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 23 22 21 20 16 14 13 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 63 51 34 22 70 96 46 5 -31 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 105 87 83 62 24 18 11 -21 13 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 20 21 7 -19 -17 -42 -3 8 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 529 545 597 715 858 1098 1211 1340 1390 1391 1337 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.8 31.6 32.3 32.9 34.0 34.5 34.6 34.4 34.7 35.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.0 73.1 71.3 69.1 67.0 62.0 57.6 53.7 50.1 48.4 48.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 19 19 20 20 17 15 11 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 20 CX,CY: 17/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. -35. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -13. -15. -18. -22. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -16. -23. -26. -32. -40. -44. -47. -50. -52. -53. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.9 75.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ALEX 06/05/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ALEX 06/05/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ALEX 06/05/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 52 51 49 44 34 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 46 41 31 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 43 38 28 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 33 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT