* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALEX AL012022 06/05/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 49 43 33 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 49 43 33 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 46 45 39 33 29 27 26 24 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 36 34 33 35 37 37 39 43 37 41 45 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 1 4 5 0 1 -2 -5 0 -5 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 269 259 257 260 265 252 242 258 260 295 330 338 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.6 27.1 26.7 26.5 25.3 23.5 22.2 21.6 21.2 20.6 19.9 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 128 124 122 110 98 90 86 83 81 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 117 113 110 99 89 82 77 74 73 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.5 -55.5 -56.7 -58.0 -58.8 -59.4 -59.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.4 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 68 64 60 54 46 41 34 32 34 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 22 23 22 19 14 12 10 9 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 43 70 48 43 27 72 95 22 -15 -55 -87 -92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 76 100 90 78 44 -2 34 -5 -11 -7 -23 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 29 35 31 22 17 0 -24 -37 -25 -4 10 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 302 484 535 562 644 924 1098 1236 1356 1300 1177 1115 1204 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.5 30.4 31.3 32.1 33.2 34.1 34.5 34.5 35.1 36.4 37.7 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.5 75.8 74.1 72.1 70.2 66.1 61.6 57.1 53.3 51.1 49.8 47.1 42.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 18 19 18 18 19 17 12 9 10 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -15. -22. -28. -34. -38. -45. -51. -55. -57. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -11. -15. -17. -20. -25. -27. -27. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. -2. -12. -21. -29. -34. -41. -49. -58. -61. -64. -66. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.6 77.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ALEX 06/05/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ALEX 06/05/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ALEX 06/05/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 49 49 43 33 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 47 41 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 36 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT