* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012022 06/05/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 42 41 38 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 42 41 38 32 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 39 37 34 30 26 24 21 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 37 39 40 42 48 40 49 61 61 57 63 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 0 1 -3 7 -4 -5 -3 3 0 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 251 265 256 259 264 262 257 254 265 289 290 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.2 26.9 25.6 23.1 22.0 20.8 18.3 18.1 16.5 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 129 126 114 97 91 86 78 77 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 115 118 115 104 89 84 79 72 72 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -56.5 -56.8 -57.1 -58.2 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 66 68 67 65 56 52 38 26 23 25 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 36 34 59 44 19 63 110 30 -7 -49 -84 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 83 63 96 74 48 27 9 -1 -27 -53 -53 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 14 31 32 23 7 12 -9 -20 -35 -2 -3 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 152 338 471 501 560 813 1013 1122 987 968 1142 1337 1567 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 29.1 30.2 31.0 31.7 33.6 34.8 35.7 37.9 39.4 40.4 42.6 46.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.9 77.3 75.6 73.6 71.7 67.2 62.0 56.7 51.5 46.6 41.9 37.2 32.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 19 18 20 21 22 22 22 20 20 23 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 7 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -3. -8. -17. -27. -37. -47. -55. -66. -76. -82. -86. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -14. -21. -28. -37. -43. -52. -61. -65. -68. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 28.0 78.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ONE 06/05/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ONE 06/05/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ONE 06/05/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 42 41 38 32 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 39 36 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 36 33 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT