* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012022 06/03/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 37 37 37 35 33 30 27 24 22 19 19 19 18 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 33 34 34 32 31 27 25 22 19 16 16 16 15 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 30 31 29 26 24 22 21 20 20 21 22 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 26 29 31 38 36 40 29 31 27 34 35 27 19 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 5 0 -1 2 -3 0 4 3 0 -3 -2 0 7 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 225 220 240 252 247 253 244 261 261 262 274 276 253 265 264 331 342 SST (C) 27.0 27.9 28.1 27.9 28.7 27.0 27.2 27.4 25.1 23.5 22.5 21.3 21.5 20.7 20.5 18.4 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 137 140 137 149 127 130 132 108 97 90 83 84 82 83 78 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 127 130 128 138 116 118 118 97 87 81 75 75 74 75 72 71 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -55.2 -56.2 -57.1 -57.0 -56.8 -57.4 -57.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 60 61 60 61 56 54 48 46 48 49 49 44 37 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 74 85 78 93 38 57 34 23 55 55 26 17 14 2 -23 -36 200 MB DIV 69 98 79 54 51 52 97 71 64 51 65 16 47 50 -35 -33 -38 700-850 TADV 1 5 10 10 7 10 13 6 8 13 28 23 34 39 50 38 50 LAND (KM) 152 169 212 119 -46 212 494 613 858 1087 1191 1234 1144 1100 1034 1019 1111 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.7 24.6 25.6 26.5 28.4 30.4 31.8 32.9 33.6 33.9 34.6 35.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.3 85.2 84.2 82.8 81.4 78.4 74.8 70.9 67.0 63.0 59.4 56.9 55.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 14 16 16 17 18 17 17 16 13 10 9 12 15 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 19 41 16 9 21 3 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 14. 11. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -9. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. -37. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.7 86.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ONE 06/03/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.54 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 7.9% 5.8% 5.1% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.1% 2.2% 1.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ONE 06/03/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ONE 06/03/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 33 34 34 32 31 27 25 22 19 16 16 16 15 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 31 32 32 30 29 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 28 29 29 27 26 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 21 22 22 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT