* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012022 06/03/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 39 41 45 47 50 46 38 31 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 39 41 38 40 43 39 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 36 35 33 30 26 25 25 23 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 26 32 31 35 39 41 38 33 38 43 41 48 51 50 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 5 4 5 -1 3 -1 3 0 -4 -7 -5 0 -3 11 SHEAR DIR 245 220 227 248 254 253 261 259 261 247 257 257 258 253 256 271 314 SST (C) 26.0 27.3 28.0 27.9 28.2 27.4 27.0 26.7 25.9 24.3 23.1 22.3 21.4 21.4 21.5 19.0 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 113 129 138 137 141 131 127 124 115 102 93 88 84 85 87 79 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 119 128 127 131 121 116 111 103 91 83 78 75 77 78 73 72 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.7 -55.8 -57.4 -57.6 -57.6 -57.8 -58.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.1 2.3 1.9 2.0 1.1 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 59 59 56 55 49 45 41 40 29 25 24 34 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 19 24 25 27 25 21 19 19 15 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 80 71 77 87 89 87 46 60 49 44 51 52 18 -30 -34 -26 -33 200 MB DIV 22 78 90 69 58 65 68 113 76 48 28 18 15 23 30 4 -44 700-850 TADV 5 5 6 14 18 21 20 15 3 2 12 15 15 11 14 1 -9 LAND (KM) 77 193 192 234 79 63 424 517 700 984 1125 1183 1217 1142 959 852 955 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.1 24.0 24.9 25.8 27.6 29.7 31.3 32.7 33.5 33.8 34.1 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.0 86.1 85.1 83.8 82.5 79.7 76.5 72.8 69.0 65.3 61.8 59.1 57.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 13 14 15 15 17 18 17 17 15 13 10 10 13 16 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 1 32 37 11 13 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 12. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -10. -17. -22. -28. -33. -38. -45. -52. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. 5. 6. 9. 6. 1. -3. -4. -9. -16. -18. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 11. 3. -4. -9. -16. -27. -34. -39. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.2 87.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ONE 06/03/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.16 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.49 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.5% 2.5% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ONE 06/03/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ONE 06/03/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 39 41 38 40 43 39 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 36 38 35 37 40 36 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 33 30 32 35 31 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 24 26 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT