* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012022 06/03/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 40 40 39 38 36 31 26 26 25 22 19 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 40 35 35 35 32 28 23 22 21 19 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 33 33 29 26 23 20 18 18 19 20 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 22 16 27 32 31 40 41 47 44 47 31 24 35 46 43 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 2 7 5 -1 5 -5 0 4 -4 0 3 0 -3 6 -5 SHEAR DIR 240 242 214 232 240 245 245 242 244 235 234 240 258 245 281 290 314 SST (C) 26.1 27.2 27.7 27.9 28.0 29.0 26.9 26.9 26.6 25.4 23.8 22.1 21.4 20.9 21.7 20.6 10.6 POT. INT. (KT) 113 125 132 136 138 154 126 125 122 110 98 87 83 83 88 84 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 111 120 125 126 143 116 112 107 98 86 76 74 74 79 77 66 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -55.2 -56.4 -57.7 -57.6 -57.7 -58.1 -59.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 64 62 60 57 58 55 46 40 33 31 31 38 52 53 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 65 75 74 87 95 55 61 43 34 28 18 0 -14 -17 -25 -39 200 MB DIV 34 10 87 100 64 52 41 95 37 33 27 25 28 32 26 8 -14 700-850 TADV 5 6 3 9 7 8 6 -2 -8 -32 -30 -20 -12 -2 10 27 46 LAND (KM) 46 117 189 178 220 -24 212 441 503 682 872 908 911 904 856 704 652 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.5 23.0 23.9 24.7 26.4 28.7 30.8 32.1 33.4 34.7 35.6 36.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.9 86.5 86.1 85.1 84.1 81.6 78.5 75.1 72.1 68.8 65.4 62.8 61.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 12 13 16 18 16 15 16 13 9 8 12 16 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 1 14 34 30 9 29 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 12. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -9. -17. -25. -33. -37. -39. -44. -49. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -4. -9. -9. -10. -13. -16. -19. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.9 86.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ONE 06/03/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.45 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 4.6% 4.1% 3.8% 2.2% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.9% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1.6% 0.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ONE 06/03/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ONE 06/03/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 40 35 35 35 32 28 23 22 21 19 15 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 37 32 32 32 29 25 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 32 27 27 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 19 19 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT