* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012022 06/03/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 35 35 34 31 26 20 18 18 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 38 39 38 32 34 32 27 20 19 19 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 33 33 33 32 27 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 23 17 28 30 40 44 52 54 53 40 31 32 34 49 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 -1 3 6 0 4 -2 -3 -1 2 -5 -2 -4 1 -10 -6 SHEAR DIR 223 241 235 211 232 242 241 253 247 245 235 243 244 252 277 297 290 SST (C) 25.4 25.8 26.8 27.8 28.0 27.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.1 25.0 23.7 21.7 20.8 22.2 19.7 6.4 POT. INT. (KT) 106 110 121 133 137 136 124 126 126 116 107 97 86 82 89 81 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 98 108 119 123 125 115 114 113 102 94 86 77 73 78 74 66 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.8 -56.4 -57.1 -57.1 -56.7 -57.3 -58.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 61 60 61 59 57 55 52 45 40 33 31 31 41 55 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 17 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 63 57 70 80 83 81 38 43 30 12 -4 -22 -27 -14 2 3 200 MB DIV 65 25 25 83 87 36 45 61 69 20 -29 -1 9 20 45 34 19 700-850 TADV 3 6 8 4 5 0 -3 -3 -22 -31 -38 -16 2 23 25 39 69 LAND (KM) -7 58 123 206 226 203 -51 316 457 529 688 815 843 803 724 676 515 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.3 23.9 25.3 27.3 29.5 31.1 32.5 33.9 35.2 36.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.6 87.3 86.9 86.3 85.8 83.6 80.8 77.6 74.3 71.4 68.5 65.6 62.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 8 10 14 17 17 16 14 14 14 12 11 13 19 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 8 42 50 7 2 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. 16. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -9. -17. -27. -37. -42. -45. -51. -55. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -10. -12. -12. -14. -16. -20. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.5 87.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012022 ONE 06/03/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.43 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 7.6% 2.4% 1.4% 0.8% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012022 ONE 06/03/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012022 ONE 06/03/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 36 38 39 38 32 34 32 27 20 19 19 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 33 27 29 27 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 28 22 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT