* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 10/02/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 50 62 68 69 66 61 57 56 58 58 59 60 60 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 50 42 45 46 43 38 34 34 36 35 36 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 45 38 39 38 37 36 35 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 9 14 20 24 29 27 28 19 14 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -3 -1 2 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 243 219 204 210 189 197 189 196 188 193 162 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.2 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 171 171 170 167 164 166 167 168 169 169 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 171 172 171 167 160 149 144 143 144 150 157 152 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 82 77 75 67 57 52 49 48 51 60 63 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 13 14 16 19 17 16 16 14 14 14 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 94 75 86 85 67 57 52 32 20 8 18 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 71 65 80 91 99 76 33 45 42 39 58 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 3 4 11 10 8 3 2 3 6 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 168 263 206 130 48 -39 45 62 113 108 69 80 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 10 8 7 5 3 2 2 4 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 74 106 147 124 76 48 45 46 43 42 49 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 7. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 38. 39. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -0. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 14. 10. 5. 1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 32. 38. 39. 36. 31. 27. 26. 28. 28. 29. 30. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 84.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 10/02/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 105.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.69 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.99 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 44.3% 26.8% 12.5% 11.8% 12.5% 13.1% 17.7% Logistic: 17.4% 52.0% 30.4% 13.7% 8.1% 7.2% 1.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 4.6% 38.0% 14.0% 5.3% 3.7% 5.0% 6.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.2% 44.8% 23.7% 10.5% 7.9% 8.2% 6.9% 6.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 10/02/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 10/02/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 44 50 42 45 46 43 38 34 34 36 35 36 38 38 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 45 37 40 41 38 33 29 29 31 30 31 33 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 37 29 32 33 30 25 21 21 23 22 23 25 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 18 21 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT