* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 10/02/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 36 42 51 58 71 79 79 77 70 65 61 61 64 68 72 70 V (KT) LAND 30 36 42 51 58 71 47 34 29 28 27 26 26 29 33 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 35 40 46 52 63 44 33 29 28 27 32 35 39 45 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 5 11 13 24 23 24 16 16 14 14 8 12 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -4 -2 2 0 -1 -7 -3 -5 -7 -4 -3 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 268 266 252 251 207 198 175 181 177 180 159 146 135 140 120 130 125 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.1 30.6 31.0 30.0 29.7 29.8 29.6 28.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 170 170 170 168 168 168 169 170 168 161 163 160 147 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 171 171 170 170 162 154 148 149 162 170 152 145 148 146 135 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 6 5 6 5 6 4 6 3 6 3 7 4 8 700-500 MB RH 82 86 84 81 79 68 61 55 54 57 61 63 66 68 71 73 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 11 13 15 18 17 15 15 13 13 13 14 16 17 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 51 62 91 99 94 82 73 60 63 30 34 27 47 48 69 70 86 200 MB DIV 97 105 78 88 101 80 79 52 51 38 45 48 50 54 53 42 47 700-850 TADV -1 2 1 2 9 13 8 3 4 0 10 6 6 3 4 2 2 LAND (KM) 124 157 201 224 153 17 -58 -80 -53 -52 -6 118 113 74 16 -70 -95 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.3 20.1 20.7 21.0 20.8 20.3 19.9 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.3 84.0 84.8 85.5 86.1 87.3 87.9 88.0 88.4 89.2 90.4 91.7 92.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 5 7 5 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 81 74 84 99 116 82 56 50 45 39 52 38 32 31 28 20 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -0. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 39. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 23. 21. 15. 8. 2. -4. -9. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 21. 28. 41. 49. 49. 47. 40. 35. 31. 31. 34. 38. 42. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 83.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 10/02/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 90.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.60 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.6 27.5 to 139.6 1.00 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 52.1% 34.0% 13.1% 12.2% 19.7% 33.1% 47.3% Logistic: 19.1% 74.8% 51.6% 39.5% 29.2% 43.7% 27.1% 17.0% Bayesian: 11.6% 72.5% 28.6% 14.7% 15.2% 24.2% 47.3% 0.9% Consensus: 13.2% 66.5% 38.1% 22.4% 18.9% 29.2% 35.9% 21.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 10/02/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 10/02/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 36 42 51 58 71 47 34 29 28 27 26 26 29 33 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 35 44 51 64 40 27 22 21 20 19 19 22 26 21 20 12HR AGO 30 27 26 35 42 55 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 40 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT