* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 10/01/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 42 50 56 57 53 49 47 49 52 54 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 42 33 29 27 27 27 27 31 34 36 39 41 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 33 29 27 27 27 27 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 5 6 12 18 31 34 33 27 31 24 26 19 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -7 -5 -4 -6 0 -7 -5 0 0 -8 -5 -5 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 52 134 188 169 147 167 153 152 151 157 144 138 118 119 118 112 90 SST (C) 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.3 30.7 29.1 28.7 29.2 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 170 170 170 169 169 168 169 170 152 146 153 160 160 160 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 173 172 170 167 164 165 169 168 169 170 143 136 143 150 150 153 149 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 77 83 86 84 81 78 68 65 65 70 70 73 72 75 77 80 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 52 73 99 104 108 109 97 87 84 54 51 52 50 47 38 21 200 MB DIV 62 95 90 64 91 108 95 72 91 76 68 50 48 71 82 101 51 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -2 0 2 2 4 9 16 21 14 5 4 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 90 83 115 134 149 32 -74 -138 -100 -100 -144 -40 27 79 162 272 381 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.1 18.0 17.7 17.1 16.4 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.3 84.6 85.4 86.1 86.8 87.9 88.9 89.5 90.5 91.7 93.2 94.5 95.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 7 7 7 5 4 3 5 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 83 67 72 77 78 67 62 17 6 9 7 13 18 21 20 17 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 6. 14. 20. 25. 29. 33. 38. 42. 44. 47. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 5. 1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 25. 31. 32. 28. 24. 22. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 83.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 10/01/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 10.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.93 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.2 27.5 to 139.6 1.00 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 40.4% 22.3% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 23.4% 0.0% Logistic: 9.5% 61.5% 37.5% 18.5% 10.1% 33.6% 46.9% 27.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 26.0% 8.2% 2.9% 1.9% 6.1% 49.7% 15.3% Consensus: 6.2% 42.6% 22.7% 11.1% 4.0% 13.2% 40.0% 14.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 10/01/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 10/01/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 42 33 29 27 27 27 27 31 34 36 39 41 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 39 30 26 24 24 24 24 28 31 33 36 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 34 25 21 19 19 19 19 23 26 28 31 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT