* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 10/01/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 34 45 57 62 63 61 58 61 65 68 72 73 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 34 45 57 39 31 28 27 32 36 39 43 37 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 28 34 40 32 28 27 27 29 29 28 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 0 1 5 11 23 24 30 25 28 25 22 14 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -7 -1 -6 -6 -7 -1 -3 -4 -6 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 330 19 70 266 61 106 149 154 140 140 137 142 139 141 135 136 151 SST (C) 30.0 30.4 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.8 31.4 30.5 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 171 170 170 170 169 169 168 168 169 170 170 165 163 160 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 172 171 170 170 168 165 161 159 155 166 170 164 149 147 145 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 6 5 7 6 7 5 6 4 7 3 7 3 700-500 MB RH 76 76 82 84 84 83 75 69 62 61 58 63 60 65 66 70 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 28 54 59 79 136 113 92 104 109 74 61 38 60 53 59 45 200 MB DIV 62 52 93 97 63 114 109 84 69 61 53 46 8 37 22 36 36 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 2 -1 0 1 0 -4 -1 4 9 8 3 2 1 5 LAND (KM) 240 124 98 59 72 165 91 3 -48 -98 -143 -58 64 89 85 73 -41 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.0 19.8 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.0 82.3 83.3 84.0 84.6 85.9 86.8 87.5 87.9 88.3 89.0 90.0 91.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 9 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 4 6 6 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 85 72 83 74 67 80 90 81 66 48 6 24 47 32 31 32 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -5. -6. -3. 5. 14. 21. 26. 30. 35. 40. 46. 48. 51. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 4. -0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 14. 25. 37. 42. 43. 41. 38. 41. 45. 48. 52. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.4 81.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 10/01/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 15.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.93 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 150.9 27.5 to 139.6 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.7% 72.9% 48.7% 16.6% 13.1% 52.3% 68.6% 74.6% Bayesian: 2.1% 27.4% 7.8% 1.0% 0.8% 6.2% 27.6% 31.8% Consensus: 7.9% 33.4% 18.8% 5.9% 4.6% 19.5% 32.1% 35.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 10/01/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 10/01/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 25 34 45 57 39 31 28 27 32 36 39 43 37 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 33 44 56 38 30 27 26 31 35 38 42 36 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 29 40 52 34 26 23 22 27 31 34 38 32 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT