* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 09/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 30 34 40 44 44 40 35 32 29 26 23 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 30 34 40 44 44 40 35 32 29 26 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 28 30 30 28 24 20 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 23 26 30 31 26 16 7 11 19 32 48 50 48 48 44 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 3 0 0 -3 -2 -2 1 3 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 95 83 78 77 73 60 54 357 307 282 252 256 247 248 239 237 223 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.3 26.6 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 137 136 135 135 126 118 114 118 122 124 128 131 130 128 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 129 130 129 128 129 119 110 105 112 117 118 120 122 121 118 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 69 74 76 78 79 82 81 77 77 72 72 63 56 55 54 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 77 69 74 79 68 54 61 85 86 86 60 56 65 80 96 103 200 MB DIV 91 104 105 122 137 97 103 48 60 35 9 -1 21 1 7 12 0 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -1 -5 -2 -4 -1 4 23 47 8 -20 -8 -7 -7 LAND (KM) 1569 1591 1631 1677 1735 1854 1882 1814 1811 1942 2161 2297 2220 1963 1652 1367 1164 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.5 13.4 14.4 15.4 16.9 18.6 20.6 22.3 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.5 37.5 37.7 37.6 37.4 36.4 35.0 34.4 34.3 35.4 37.8 40.9 44.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 3 4 5 6 8 7 6 8 13 16 17 15 15 14 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 12 13 15 8 4 0 2 6 3 9 12 15 17 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -16. -22. -29. -34. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 19. 19. 15. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 37.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 09/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.66 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 14.5% 10.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 6.2% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.6% 2.8% Consensus: 2.5% 7.3% 4.5% 2.5% 0.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 09/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 09/05/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 27 28 30 34 40 44 44 40 35 32 29 26 23 21 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 28 32 38 42 42 38 33 30 27 24 21 19 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 28 34 38 38 34 29 26 23 20 17 15 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 22 28 32 32 28 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT