* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 09/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 36 40 45 48 51 53 54 52 48 45 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 36 40 45 48 51 53 54 52 48 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 29 32 36 39 39 37 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 20 24 23 31 29 19 15 11 5 15 24 35 38 47 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 -3 -1 0 -1 -7 0 -3 4 4 3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 94 82 77 74 80 84 79 66 33 24 340 276 262 261 251 249 245 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.6 26.8 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.2 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 137 137 134 135 135 130 121 118 121 123 123 128 130 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 132 131 130 126 130 130 124 113 111 116 119 118 118 120 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 67 70 69 72 74 75 79 79 79 76 73 66 61 61 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 52 52 46 48 73 68 50 53 60 78 80 88 75 82 76 88 200 MB DIV 38 63 55 49 64 91 131 79 56 50 33 29 32 -1 14 6 5 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -6 4 -2 -4 -10 -3 20 27 22 8 5 LAND (KM) 1554 1520 1489 1462 1469 1518 1658 1796 1924 1911 1990 2153 2108 2075 1991 1721 1458 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.9 15.2 16.7 18.2 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.1 39.6 40.1 40.3 40.2 38.9 37.1 35.8 35.3 36.0 37.8 40.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 8 8 8 7 10 14 18 17 13 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 19 22 25 22 14 14 12 5 2 7 2 6 13 15 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -10. -14. -18. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. 27. 23. 20. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 38.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 09/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 12.7% 9.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% Consensus: 1.6% 5.0% 3.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 09/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 09/04/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 31 36 40 45 48 51 53 54 52 48 45 43 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 29 34 38 43 46 49 51 52 50 46 43 41 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 31 35 40 43 46 48 49 47 43 40 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 24 28 33 36 39 41 42 40 36 33 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT