* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 09/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 30 35 40 43 46 50 53 57 59 59 59 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 30 35 40 43 46 50 53 57 59 59 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 40 40 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 21 22 23 21 26 23 19 12 18 22 22 24 25 28 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -4 0 2 0 -7 -8 -8 -4 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 88 84 86 82 85 93 94 94 69 71 62 106 119 117 90 87 94 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 138 136 135 137 137 136 134 129 128 129 131 131 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 133 133 133 127 126 132 132 129 125 119 117 118 120 122 124 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 66 68 69 68 73 72 72 76 80 78 78 72 72 69 73 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 38 40 40 49 71 70 65 64 58 84 80 63 47 39 25 200 MB DIV 7 32 48 35 18 48 52 91 57 67 -8 -1 -32 -26 -33 -10 -18 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 -1 6 4 0 0 2 3 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1570 1529 1501 1456 1419 1413 1436 1515 1644 1717 1802 1854 1840 1794 1769 1747 1685 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 10.8 10.8 10.9 11.2 11.9 12.1 12.0 11.9 12.3 13.0 13.5 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.1 38.7 39.3 39.9 40.5 41.1 41.0 40.0 38.5 37.2 36.8 36.9 37.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 2 3 7 7 5 4 2 2 2 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 17 21 25 29 28 22 14 13 14 14 15 14 13 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 21. 25. 28. 32. 34. 34. 34. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 38.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 09/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 13.7% 9.7% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 1.7% 5.3% 3.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% 2.6% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 09/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 09/04/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 27 30 35 40 43 46 50 53 57 59 59 59 62 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 26 29 34 39 42 45 49 52 56 58 58 58 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 26 31 36 39 42 46 49 53 55 55 55 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 25 30 33 36 40 43 47 49 49 49 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT