* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 09/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 41 44 47 49 52 55 57 59 62 66 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 41 44 47 49 52 55 57 59 62 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 36 37 37 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 22 23 22 20 20 19 19 13 14 19 23 18 14 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -3 -5 -5 -3 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 96 96 96 101 104 97 103 98 102 84 89 93 129 147 150 133 109 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 137 137 135 132 129 133 134 132 132 133 138 142 146 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 132 132 132 130 123 117 124 125 122 121 124 133 139 144 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 57 60 62 64 66 69 73 72 74 74 77 75 74 67 65 62 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 57 63 62 55 57 65 74 53 50 38 16 3 0 3 2 8 200 MB DIV 41 30 16 25 29 7 39 69 90 45 33 -33 -36 -36 -35 -46 -37 700-850 TADV 8 4 3 2 0 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 2 2 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 1738 1704 1668 1657 1608 1509 1470 1454 1478 1508 1553 1553 1527 1415 1257 1083 949 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.0 12.8 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.3 36.8 37.5 38.2 38.9 40.3 41.2 41.6 41.1 40.4 39.8 39.8 40.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 7 3 1 4 4 1 1 3 7 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 12 13 15 23 20 16 20 23 19 19 21 29 26 31 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 16. 19. 22. 24. 27. 30. 32. 34. 37. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 36.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 09/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 11.6% 8.3% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.7% 3.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 2.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 09/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 09/04/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 27 30 34 41 44 47 49 52 55 57 59 62 66 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 29 33 40 43 46 48 51 54 56 58 61 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 25 29 36 39 42 44 47 50 52 54 57 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 23 30 33 36 38 41 44 46 48 51 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT