* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 09/03/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 40 44 45 48 51 56 59 61 64 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 40 44 45 48 51 56 59 61 64 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 23 24 25 27 28 30 33 36 38 41 44 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 25 22 26 18 18 14 19 14 13 14 14 14 9 6 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -5 -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 -3 -5 -6 -6 -8 -3 0 -9 SHEAR DIR 91 95 95 92 99 97 102 92 104 97 87 88 106 144 148 109 95 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 138 138 136 131 131 134 135 133 133 133 132 134 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 133 134 135 134 135 130 122 122 126 126 123 124 125 126 130 141 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 52 56 59 60 63 67 68 71 71 74 73 75 70 66 59 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 27 37 47 41 40 39 52 64 54 40 26 -4 -15 -18 -30 -40 200 MB DIV 40 36 19 -4 0 4 14 53 73 75 62 0 -44 -49 -18 -41 -24 700-850 TADV 5 6 3 1 1 -2 -1 -2 -3 2 2 1 0 1 3 7 6 LAND (KM) 1733 1687 1631 1588 1540 1426 1355 1322 1345 1377 1420 1468 1488 1462 1362 1218 1047 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.0 11.6 11.3 11.1 11.3 11.9 12.3 12.5 12.2 12.0 12.2 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.1 37.7 38.4 39.1 40.5 41.8 42.6 42.5 41.8 41.1 40.7 40.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 3 4 3 1 3 5 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 14 16 25 26 17 16 24 29 27 22 19 12 14 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 20. 23. 26. 31. 34. 36. 39. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 36.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 09/03/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 9.1% 6.6% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.4% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 09/03/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 09/03/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 40 44 45 48 51 56 59 61 64 67 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 28 33 39 43 44 47 50 55 58 60 63 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 25 30 36 40 41 44 47 52 55 57 60 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 18 23 29 33 34 37 40 45 48 50 53 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT