* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 09/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 24 25 26 30 33 35 39 43 49 55 59 60 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 24 25 26 30 33 35 39 43 49 55 59 60 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 19 20 21 23 26 29 33 37 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 30 30 29 29 18 18 13 13 7 10 7 7 4 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 0 3 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -4 -3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 89 92 99 105 101 109 104 94 82 67 32 44 70 114 169 181 171 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 142 143 141 139 139 137 134 131 132 132 133 132 131 129 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 137 140 138 135 135 132 125 120 122 122 125 125 125 124 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 62 67 71 75 76 78 76 78 74 73 66 65 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 18 27 29 32 45 50 54 57 59 54 30 4 -9 -7 -14 -15 -23 200 MB DIV 51 48 51 48 36 23 30 50 117 130 85 37 -26 -28 -21 -4 -10 700-850 TADV 4 8 11 12 7 3 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -6 -3 -1 1 1 5 LAND (KM) 1795 1784 1728 1651 1571 1496 1504 1559 1562 1573 1564 1559 1537 1508 1443 1347 1197 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.3 11.8 11.2 10.6 10.2 10.5 11.4 11.9 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.1 34.8 34.9 35.3 35.8 36.9 38.1 39.1 39.4 39.5 39.6 39.8 40.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 6 7 7 5 6 5 2 0 1 2 4 6 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 12 12 12 13 16 18 17 18 19 18 13 10 8 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 822 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 13. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 24. 30. 34. 35. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 35.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 09/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.4% 3.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 09/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 09/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 25 24 25 26 30 33 35 39 43 49 55 59 60 64 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 23 24 25 29 32 34 38 42 48 54 58 59 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 21 22 23 27 30 32 36 40 46 52 56 57 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT