* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 09/03/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 32 36 37 39 46 51 59 62 65 69 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 32 36 37 39 46 51 59 62 65 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 20 21 22 25 28 31 35 39 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 29 31 30 31 26 20 19 16 13 15 16 10 8 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -3 -6 -5 -3 -4 -5 -4 0 -1 -8 -5 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 84 86 89 99 105 102 112 92 95 83 80 40 74 82 110 102 122 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.8 27.8 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 140 141 140 139 140 140 139 136 137 137 137 139 133 134 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 132 136 136 136 138 136 132 126 128 128 128 133 127 131 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 55 59 63 67 69 71 70 73 70 72 65 64 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 8 10 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 15 11 15 13 13 40 31 31 46 52 41 32 1 -6 -19 -27 -34 200 MB DIV 65 48 31 34 27 -7 23 13 73 97 97 24 11 -63 -42 -30 -18 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 8 9 3 0 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1773 1778 1746 1684 1609 1476 1430 1361 1318 1321 1331 1320 1335 1311 1283 1220 1131 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.3 11.8 11.2 10.2 10.0 10.4 11.0 11.3 11.2 10.9 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.2 36.0 36.0 36.3 36.7 37.8 39.1 40.6 41.5 41.7 41.5 41.4 41.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 4 6 7 7 7 7 4 1 2 1 2 5 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 15 13 12 13 16 24 27 27 27 26 27 26 17 14 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -12. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -7. -8. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 11. 12. 14. 21. 26. 34. 37. 40. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 36.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 09/03/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 12.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.9% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 09/03/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 09/03/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 32 36 37 39 46 51 59 62 65 69 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 26 28 31 35 36 38 45 50 58 61 64 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 23 25 28 32 33 35 42 47 55 58 61 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 19 22 26 27 29 36 41 49 52 55 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT