* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 09/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 35 37 40 47 53 60 62 67 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 35 37 40 47 53 60 62 67 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 20 20 22 25 28 31 34 37 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 28 27 26 29 32 31 21 20 16 14 14 19 17 10 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -8 -5 -2 -4 -2 -1 1 -5 -7 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 80 86 88 89 94 99 107 92 88 89 85 53 57 71 94 104 54 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 138 139 140 140 141 145 142 142 139 142 141 141 141 141 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 123 129 132 136 139 139 145 139 134 130 134 134 132 135 136 137 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 55 53 52 54 63 65 68 67 68 68 73 72 70 65 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 9 10 11 10 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 1 5 5 17 28 26 26 39 31 27 11 6 -12 -24 -25 200 MB DIV 49 67 52 26 22 5 18 45 52 68 103 87 -3 -31 -40 -31 0 700-850 TADV -1 1 3 4 7 3 0 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1755 1768 1746 1701 1631 1458 1362 1304 1242 1204 1202 1192 1209 1227 1232 1214 1147 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.4 12.0 11.4 10.0 9.3 9.3 10.1 10.6 10.7 10.3 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.5 36.4 36.4 36.5 36.7 37.6 38.8 40.3 41.7 42.5 42.6 42.4 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 3 5 7 8 7 8 6 2 1 2 2 1 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 15 14 12 13 16 22 26 27 27 26 26 25 26 26 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -5. -7. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 22. 28. 35. 37. 42. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 36.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 09/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.08 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.5% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 5.1% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 09/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 09/02/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 32 35 37 40 47 53 60 62 67 71 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 27 29 31 34 36 39 46 52 59 61 66 70 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 26 28 31 33 36 43 49 56 58 63 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 19 21 24 26 29 36 42 49 51 56 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT