* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 09/02/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 39 41 49 60 64 67 69 73 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 39 41 49 60 64 67 69 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 23 22 22 23 26 30 32 34 36 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 31 28 24 22 28 30 26 24 20 18 19 23 23 18 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -2 0 -4 -6 -6 -5 -1 -3 0 0 -7 -7 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 80 81 83 83 78 91 106 97 84 90 84 67 49 68 74 97 104 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 136 137 138 140 141 146 147 142 140 142 143 143 141 138 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 126 129 133 138 140 146 147 137 131 136 139 138 136 132 130 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 55 54 59 63 66 65 66 66 69 71 74 70 72 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 9 13 13 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -4 -7 -6 1 1 17 19 16 32 40 34 25 10 8 0 37 200 MB DIV 47 41 56 67 33 3 -13 37 35 76 66 99 43 32 -30 -24 -26 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 3 4 5 2 -1 -4 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1698 1721 1713 1682 1623 1469 1320 1242 1207 1156 1148 1178 1219 1281 1332 1421 1463 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.2 11.9 11.4 10.1 8.9 8.5 9.0 9.6 9.9 9.8 9.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.1 37.0 36.9 36.8 37.0 37.6 38.6 39.9 41.4 42.3 42.6 42.2 41.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 4 6 8 7 7 7 4 0 3 5 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 13 12 13 18 23 25 26 27 26 25 23 20 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -16. -18. -18. -18. -18. -19. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -7. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 16. 24. 35. 39. 42. 44. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 37.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 09/02/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.66 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 10.4% 7.4% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.8% 2.9% 1.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 09/02/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 09/02/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 39 39 41 49 60 64 67 69 73 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 38 40 48 59 63 66 68 72 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 28 31 34 34 36 44 55 59 62 64 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 21 24 27 27 29 37 48 52 55 57 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT