* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 09/02/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 38 38 39 47 55 60 65 68 72 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 38 38 39 47 55 60 65 68 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 22 23 25 29 31 33 37 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 25 29 28 23 23 24 23 23 19 16 17 17 19 15 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -3 0 2 0 -1 -3 -1 0 3 1 -5 -8 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 91 81 83 84 82 78 95 93 91 94 91 69 57 65 83 104 119 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 139 140 140 143 143 146 143 140 140 141 140 139 139 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 127 130 133 137 142 142 145 138 134 133 136 135 134 134 132 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -54.1 -53.6 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 58 57 57 66 69 73 71 72 71 76 74 74 72 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 9 12 12 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 25 14 1 -3 -5 3 17 29 25 27 40 33 43 19 22 28 50 200 MB DIV 63 52 60 94 87 24 32 45 69 114 98 90 84 42 7 3 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 4 6 5 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1685 1711 1727 1722 1679 1542 1380 1272 1262 1295 1293 1304 1324 1336 1373 1464 1565 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.1 11.7 10.5 9.2 8.4 8.5 9.3 9.7 9.9 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.7 36.5 36.3 36.1 36.1 36.4 37.2 38.2 39.5 40.5 40.9 40.9 40.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 5 7 7 6 7 4 2 2 4 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 14 15 13 12 16 22 22 23 24 24 22 18 16 14 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -15. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 16. 16. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -6. -3. -4. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 13. 14. 22. 30. 35. 40. 43. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 36.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 09/02/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 11.9% 8.5% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.0% 3.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 09/02/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 09/02/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 38 38 39 47 55 60 65 68 72 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 28 30 34 37 37 38 46 54 59 64 67 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 24 26 30 33 33 34 42 50 55 60 63 67 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 20 24 27 27 28 36 44 49 54 57 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT