* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 07/23/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 35 39 41 44 46 48 51 54 56 58 61 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 35 39 41 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 29 30 32 34 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 9 14 8 5 12 5 18 13 24 12 16 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 0 -5 3 -5 2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 325 16 36 342 2 304 357 312 360 298 354 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 168 168 165 159 157 151 161 167 167 169 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 146 145 143 138 134 127 134 137 137 140 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 10 8 10 9 12 9 12 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 61 64 66 65 65 66 63 63 62 63 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 9 9 8 6 4 3 4 3 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -25 -20 2 -9 -29 -14 -28 -21 -38 -13 -7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 2 14 28 3 -16 13 -27 27 -3 23 11 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -9 -2 -2 -8 -2 -3 -3 -8 -7 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 391 339 294 272 246 187 144 59 -51 -114 -165 -226 -297 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 6 7 8 7 5 4 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 43 42 36 28 23 28 25 33 9 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 8. 5. 4. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 19. 21. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.7 87.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 07/23/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 18.6% 13.3% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 58.2% 43.1% 27.3% 20.2% 36.1% 52.4% 64.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 4.3% 25.9% 18.9% 12.4% 6.7% 12.0% 21.5% 21.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 07/23/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 07/23/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 32 35 39 41 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 33 37 39 33 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 29 33 35 29 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 24 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT