* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 07/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 43 46 53 56 60 62 66 67 69 71 73 75 76 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 43 46 53 56 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 40 45 50 54 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 1 6 9 1 9 4 6 9 2 15 6 8 10 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 2 3 0 1 -2 2 -2 4 -4 1 -6 0 -4 2 5 SHEAR DIR 88 130 141 57 97 194 103 227 84 295 313 288 314 295 281 271 277 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.8 30.1 29.7 28.7 30.4 29.7 28.5 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 165 165 171 163 146 170 163 143 123 124 121 118 121 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 151 146 145 151 142 127 153 141 122 106 106 103 100 102 105 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 64 63 59 62 64 61 65 61 66 62 65 63 64 59 56 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 9 6 7 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 2 -1 6 16 7 26 13 14 25 19 20 13 29 6 17 -4 200 MB DIV 61 11 -12 6 28 -8 26 4 17 27 6 32 8 42 -3 23 -16 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -10 -8 -3 -9 0 -6 -3 -4 -8 -6 -2 0 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 412 394 390 371 365 336 200 36 -147 -319 -494 -574 -465 -356 -289 -218 -102 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.9 28.3 28.8 28.9 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.4 89.2 90.1 91.0 91.9 93.6 95.4 97.1 98.8 100.5 102.2 104.1 105.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 6 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 48 56 56 38 30 37 40 18 5 5 4 1 2 1 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 13. 16. 23. 26. 30. 32. 36. 37. 39. 41. 43. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.4 88.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 07/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 28.8% 17.9% 12.6% 11.2% 13.4% 14.6% 43.9% Logistic: 11.6% 51.7% 41.0% 34.3% 18.9% 54.8% 48.5% 46.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 9.7% 5.3% 0.7% 0.2% 1.3% 0.2% 4.6% Consensus: 6.9% 30.1% 21.4% 15.9% 10.1% 23.2% 21.1% 31.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 07/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 07/22/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 38 43 46 53 56 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 39 42 49 52 33 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 33 36 43 46 27 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 28 35 38 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT