* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 07/22/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 42 49 52 58 62 66 67 70 70 72 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 37 42 49 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 4 1 7 9 4 9 5 3 6 8 9 8 9 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 2 3 -5 3 -4 3 1 3 -1 0 -5 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 15 74 109 110 57 132 66 150 22 195 9 244 332 279 306 329 316 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.8 29.6 30.1 29.6 28.6 30.3 30.1 28.9 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 171 165 162 170 161 144 170 170 149 123 122 122 121 122 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 151 146 142 149 141 124 150 146 128 107 106 105 104 103 104 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 11 9 12 10 14 11 14 10 11 7 9 4 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 59 61 61 61 63 62 63 61 62 61 61 59 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 5 8 -4 8 19 7 18 19 13 14 34 23 27 28 14 19 200 MB DIV 22 56 8 -4 3 4 -3 13 -17 31 3 21 4 20 7 9 -5 700-850 TADV -7 -2 -5 -8 -8 -1 -7 -2 -2 -4 -2 -10 -2 -3 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 391 339 324 314 320 300 183 48 -112 -256 -422 -570 -467 -347 -235 -133 -56 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.9 89.9 90.8 91.8 93.6 95.4 96.9 98.5 99.9 101.6 103.1 105.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 47 44 31 25 38 38 17 5 5 4 1 1 2 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 36. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 17. 24. 27. 33. 37. 41. 42. 45. 45. 47. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.7 87.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 07/22/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.17 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.85 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 14.8% 10.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 19.4% 14.6% 8.9% 2.4% 10.4% 15.4% 17.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 2.3% 11.4% 8.4% 5.6% 0.8% 3.5% 8.9% 5.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 07/22/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 07/22/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 31 37 42 49 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 29 35 40 47 34 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 31 36 43 30 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 29 36 23 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT