* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 07/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 31 37 42 49 50 51 57 56 61 64 67 71 75 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 31 37 42 49 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 8 2 12 4 13 5 9 3 5 6 3 1 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -5 2 -2 1 -2 0 -1 2 -1 1 0 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 319 15 75 122 143 100 154 110 172 107 33 87 341 350 155 288 211 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.8 30.1 29.7 28.8 29.5 28.9 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 167 165 171 163 148 160 149 127 124 121 119 122 128 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 154 153 149 147 151 144 129 140 130 111 107 105 101 102 105 104 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 10 10 9 10 7 700-500 MB RH 59 61 61 60 57 59 57 62 61 66 63 63 61 59 54 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 8 7 8 6 7 4 2 5 2 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -13 6 8 8 17 20 18 15 2 14 1 15 14 24 1 39 200 MB DIV -7 20 40 0 -3 17 4 20 11 2 31 -7 32 -7 51 5 27 700-850 TADV -18 -10 -3 -4 -8 -3 -10 -1 -4 -3 -12 -6 -8 0 -3 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 428 386 364 359 370 349 173 4 -162 -343 -539 -541 -451 -403 -357 -299 -304 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.6 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.8 28.4 29.2 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.3 88.6 89.7 90.7 91.7 93.7 95.5 97.4 99.1 100.9 102.8 104.7 106.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 48 56 41 31 39 42 22 5 4 2 2 1 1 3 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 34. 35. 35. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -7. -10. -8. -12. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 6. 12. 17. 24. 25. 26. 33. 31. 36. 39. 42. 46. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.4 87.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 07/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.88 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 20.3% 14.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 14.1% 11.9% 5.8% 1.1% 7.5% 4.8% 7.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 3.2% 11.5% 8.9% 5.6% 0.4% 2.5% 5.8% 2.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 07/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 07/22/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 30 31 37 42 49 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 30 36 41 48 32 28 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 31 36 43 27 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 27 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT