* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 07/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 38 45 52 57 56 58 60 62 67 67 71 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 38 45 52 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 34 38 42 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 15 13 10 4 12 8 14 7 12 1 6 7 4 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -2 5 -2 -2 -1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 345 335 336 21 86 217 103 167 115 178 124 109 124 321 6 12 323 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.9 30.1 29.6 30.1 29.6 29.1 29.5 28.9 27.3 26.9 27.0 26.5 26.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 168 168 171 162 171 161 152 160 149 127 122 124 118 122 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 151 153 151 152 143 151 142 132 140 129 110 104 107 101 103 106 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 10 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 62 62 58 61 60 55 57 57 60 60 64 63 63 64 64 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 8 7 8 7 7 4 3 3 3 3 1 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -17 -31 -17 7 -1 14 21 19 17 -5 8 2 16 9 25 5 200 MB DIV 46 23 -12 12 40 3 13 13 12 21 -11 38 -2 26 4 62 11 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -18 -10 -1 -10 -1 -8 -2 -5 -1 -9 -3 -4 -1 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 293 407 381 329 302 323 300 160 -15 -182 -361 -527 -562 -481 -417 -401 -335 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.7 28.3 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.7 86.3 87.6 88.8 89.9 91.9 93.9 95.7 97.6 99.3 101.1 102.7 104.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 9 7 8 7 9 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 49 34 37 45 38 25 41 38 26 4 4 2 1 1 1 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. 36. 36. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 27. 32. 31. 33. 35. 37. 42. 42. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.2 84.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 07/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.89 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 16.2% 11.5% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 18.2% 13.3% 8.5% 2.0% 10.1% 16.6% 22.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.7% 11.5% 8.3% 5.7% 0.7% 3.4% 9.3% 7.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 07/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 07/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 33 38 45 52 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 35 42 49 45 31 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 38 45 41 27 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 30 37 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT