* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 09/24/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 47 49 46 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 47 42 40 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 29 31 35 32 39 41 41 40 40 43 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 24 29 29 27 28 21 28 47 44 44 52 39 20 7 9 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -4 -3 0 -3 3 -2 0 11 19 15 9 15 1 3 SHEAR DIR 260 266 270 272 261 258 253 217 207 225 259 266 261 253 209 302 326 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 27.1 26.8 27.0 26.9 25.1 17.1 13.1 9.2 9.9 10.4 13.1 13.1 11.7 11.9 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 125 121 123 123 109 77 72 68 69 71 73 70 64 63 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 104 104 101 102 103 95 73 70 66 68 69 70 67 62 61 64 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.1 -55.8 -55.8 -56.0 -55.9 -56.3 -56.4 -56.8 -55.8 -52.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.4 -53.6 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 54 54 51 54 55 61 48 34 42 51 53 57 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 10 10 13 16 17 15 13 7 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -15 -17 -31 -31 -14 16 29 57 110 88 107 138 133 138 91 45 200 MB DIV 0 35 24 34 31 37 52 67 71 23 3 12 10 2 -16 -43 -46 700-850 TADV 21 13 6 11 8 14 25 49 56 10 -18 -34 -18 -14 -10 9 -11 LAND (KM) 1192 1068 963 884 818 668 486 193 17 354 830 1475 871 382 286 379 377 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.6 34.5 35.3 36.1 37.8 40.3 44.4 49.5 53.6 55.7 57.1 57.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.8 63.4 63.8 63.9 63.8 63.0 61.5 58.9 55.1 50.6 43.8 33.7 22.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 9 8 8 11 18 26 28 22 26 30 31 21 8 6 13 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 8 11 18 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 16 CX,CY: -8/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -2. -9. -17. -25. -34. -43. -51. -53. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -2. 1. 2. -2. -5. -14. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 17. 19. 16. 9. -2. -18. -31. -31. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.6 62.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 09/24/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.38 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 85.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.15 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 09/24/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 09/24/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 47 42 40 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 37 40 45 40 38 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 36 41 36 34 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 28 33 28 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT