* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 09/24/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 39 42 48 46 41 32 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 39 42 48 39 35 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 28 32 35 38 40 40 40 42 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 28 24 28 30 29 25 23 34 52 41 55 45 28 16 12 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -4 -3 -2 -1 2 -6 2 15 20 13 17 15 3 SHEAR DIR 258 261 267 270 273 258 258 242 208 217 245 267 270 265 225 235 299 SST (C) 27.4 26.9 26.8 27.0 26.7 27.0 27.4 22.7 15.6 8.6 10.0 10.3 12.9 13.0 11.4 9.7 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 122 123 120 124 130 94 75 69 69 71 73 71 66 64 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 107 103 103 100 103 110 85 72 68 68 70 71 68 64 62 62 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.0 -56.1 -55.8 -55.8 -56.1 -56.0 -56.5 -56.5 -56.5 -54.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -53.1 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.3 -0.2 1.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 52 51 51 53 53 52 51 56 59 39 40 50 53 55 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 12 12 11 10 9 14 16 16 14 10 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -11 -13 -15 -30 -16 -7 22 39 59 81 89 124 163 152 78 -16 200 MB DIV 5 1 35 26 30 29 29 78 79 20 18 11 9 8 -54 -93 -109 700-850 TADV 14 21 12 7 11 12 20 35 41 42 0 -11 9 21 6 16 6 LAND (KM) 1346 1197 1082 992 913 781 605 389 88 223 654 1299 998 466 389 633 730 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.5 33.5 34.3 35.1 36.7 38.7 41.8 46.4 51.4 54.6 56.4 57.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.0 62.9 63.3 63.6 63.7 63.2 62.1 60.0 56.8 52.3 46.2 36.4 24.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 9 8 8 9 14 22 28 27 25 32 33 24 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 5 9 5 13 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 17 CX,CY: -3/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 14. 13. 11. 9. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -2. -8. -16. -25. -34. -44. -54. -57. -56. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 14. 17. 23. 21. 16. 7. -7. -24. -26. -24. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.4 62.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 09/24/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.45 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 09/24/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 09/24/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 38 39 42 48 39 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 35 36 39 45 36 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 31 34 40 31 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 22 25 31 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT