* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 08/26/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 43 49 57 68 78 83 80 78 75 72 67 70 69 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 43 44 56 67 77 82 55 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 40 44 52 62 71 52 35 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 12 15 15 13 6 8 11 11 8 20 19 18 17 23 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -3 6 0 0 -2 0 3 2 0 8 3 8 -2 SHEAR DIR 280 227 223 243 248 195 252 223 323 262 262 254 263 260 287 274 281 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.5 29.3 30.0 30.3 31.1 32.1 32.3 31.9 31.0 31.0 31.0 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 151 153 161 158 171 172 171 170 171 171 170 170 171 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 144 145 145 152 148 156 157 169 170 171 171 153 152 158 135 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -50.5 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 4 8 3 9 2 8 1 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 67 66 70 67 70 72 71 72 69 67 61 50 44 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 14 16 17 20 24 28 29 26 24 21 18 14 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 91 81 73 64 49 46 14 20 -5 -9 -19 -14 -34 64 79 59 42 200 MB DIV 82 79 93 83 55 47 23 25 44 34 27 83 40 54 -4 7 -45 700-850 TADV 9 10 9 12 16 9 0 12 -4 9 5 5 4 8 5 -14 -22 LAND (KM) 208 185 243 314 237 -5 264 377 179 61 -64 -225 -367 -486 -577 -585 -554 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 12 13 14 12 11 9 8 8 9 6 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 48 58 69 83 66 96 63 50 8 8 7 6 6 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 38. 42. 44. 46. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 18. 14. 10. 5. 0. -5. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 27. 38. 48. 53. 50. 48. 45. 42. 37. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.4 79.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 08/26/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 14.4% 9.0% 7.6% 5.5% 9.8% 11.4% 28.4% Logistic: 2.5% 8.2% 6.3% 3.0% 0.3% 2.3% 3.2% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% Consensus: 2.5% 7.9% 5.2% 3.5% 1.9% 4.1% 5.1% 10.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 11.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 08/26/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 08/26/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 39 43 44 56 67 77 82 55 36 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 39 40 52 63 73 78 51 32 26 24 23 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 35 47 58 68 73 46 27 21 19 18 18 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 25 37 48 58 63 36 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT