* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 08/26/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 48 53 63 69 82 82 80 76 72 67 64 60 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 48 53 63 69 82 71 43 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 38 42 48 57 68 65 40 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 10 11 9 14 6 13 7 18 14 27 22 21 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 4 -3 3 3 0 1 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 252 265 236 216 241 245 271 308 307 296 293 249 263 252 265 253 287 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.7 29.3 29.0 29.7 30.4 31.8 32.0 31.1 31.1 30.9 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 142 142 148 157 152 165 172 172 171 171 170 171 160 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 139 136 135 139 146 139 150 162 172 171 160 157 154 131 130 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.3 1.5 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 5 7 4 7 1 4 1 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 71 70 70 71 71 72 75 68 71 64 68 66 66 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 13 16 16 19 22 29 28 27 24 21 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 91 85 82 74 67 49 31 26 20 10 -29 -13 -59 -1 -12 52 31 200 MB DIV 85 83 76 77 78 60 68 40 37 45 16 94 59 53 33 45 21 700-850 TADV 8 9 8 9 8 9 15 0 -1 5 14 9 14 10 6 2 0 LAND (KM) 296 232 207 249 349 202 33 206 390 194 -4 -143 -325 -432 -497 -567 -484 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.4 20.1 21.7 23.3 25.1 27.3 29.5 31.6 33.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.8 78.8 79.7 80.6 81.6 83.5 85.1 86.5 87.8 89.2 90.2 90.7 90.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 12 13 11 9 8 7 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 47 41 48 72 91 36 64 94 47 7 6 6 6 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 32. 36. 40. 42. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 20. 19. 16. 11. 6. 2. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 18. 23. 33. 39. 52. 52. 50. 46. 42. 37. 34. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 77.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 08/26/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 14.2% 9.1% 7.6% 5.5% 9.8% 11.6% 22.8% Logistic: 2.1% 8.0% 4.9% 1.8% 0.3% 2.5% 5.1% 5.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 4.0% 0.7% Consensus: 2.4% 7.5% 5.0% 3.2% 2.0% 4.3% 6.9% 9.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 08/26/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 08/26/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 40 48 53 63 69 82 71 43 32 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 45 50 60 66 79 68 40 29 25 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 39 44 54 60 73 62 34 23 19 18 18 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 30 35 45 51 64 53 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT