* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 08/26/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 58 63 74 81 89 93 89 84 78 76 78 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 51 58 63 74 81 89 93 70 41 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 53 61 73 84 89 69 41 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 3 4 6 9 18 10 10 10 12 17 14 14 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 2 2 0 -1 4 -7 0 1 2 0 4 0 7 3 11 SHEAR DIR 201 218 290 297 209 261 221 297 287 322 278 271 246 249 279 316 285 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 29.1 28.7 29.2 29.9 30.5 31.8 32.5 32.4 31.6 31.1 31.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 143 141 141 155 148 156 168 171 170 171 172 171 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 140 138 137 135 149 139 144 153 160 170 171 172 171 151 151 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 7 4 10 2 9 700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 73 74 72 74 70 72 72 71 71 69 66 57 50 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 10 13 15 15 20 25 28 31 27 24 19 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 98 94 91 89 82 69 65 24 45 20 18 -4 18 12 66 40 4 200 MB DIV 102 95 85 78 74 74 68 30 69 40 38 49 59 57 6 0 -18 700-850 TADV 3 5 6 7 9 8 4 6 5 4 11 9 5 1 5 3 -6 LAND (KM) 404 375 357 328 315 302 211 85 212 400 207 72 -32 -258 -515 -629 -603 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 11 11 13 13 13 12 12 10 8 8 12 10 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 36 42 40 37 31 43 119 35 24 39 56 54 23 8 7 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 36. 40. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 12. 17. 22. 25. 19. 12. 5. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 28. 33. 44. 51. 59. 63. 59. 54. 48. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 77.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 08/26/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 17.0% 10.6% 8.7% 6.5% 11.0% 18.9% 28.4% Logistic: 2.5% 14.3% 7.7% 3.3% 0.8% 4.1% 6.0% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 7.0% 2.6% Consensus: 2.5% 10.7% 6.4% 4.0% 2.4% 5.3% 10.6% 13.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 08/26/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 08/26/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 43 51 58 63 74 81 89 93 70 41 31 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 48 55 60 71 78 86 90 67 38 28 25 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 42 49 54 65 72 80 84 61 32 22 19 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 39 44 55 62 70 74 51 22 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT