* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 08/25/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 50 56 60 62 64 64 67 68 69 71 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 50 56 37 41 44 44 46 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 38 41 44 32 37 40 44 48 36 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 12 11 9 11 10 7 3 14 3 16 14 27 26 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -5 -3 0 0 -4 -3 2 -4 2 -2 7 -4 SHEAR DIR 264 207 192 193 172 166 160 256 291 313 288 265 241 238 225 237 244 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.3 29.2 30.2 30.7 30.6 30.6 31.2 31.8 31.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 146 142 147 148 148 148 142 156 172 172 171 171 171 172 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 148 146 139 145 144 142 140 133 145 160 166 160 158 168 172 172 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -50.9 -50.2 -50.4 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 5 6 5 7 5 7 6 7 6 8 6 10 5 7 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 71 71 74 72 75 74 74 73 72 73 67 64 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 99 102 99 98 107 69 72 68 65 35 13 18 21 67 33 45 200 MB DIV 98 116 102 101 115 109 94 73 60 64 59 19 41 36 34 39 3 700-850 TADV 3 2 4 5 3 2 1 0 -2 -2 -3 -8 -4 -20 3 -53 -31 LAND (KM) 335 363 260 175 76 78 206 25 -44 210 483 277 63 -157 -353 -499 -635 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 13 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 28 31 18 22 29 48 30 23 37 60 55 37 6 6 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 880 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 35. 39. 41. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 34. 37. 38. 39. 41. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 77.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 08/25/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 15.6% 9.7% 7.8% 5.5% 10.1% 11.5% 22.2% Logistic: 3.9% 14.3% 12.3% 8.9% 0.7% 5.1% 4.5% 6.1% Bayesian: 2.5% 9.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 4.4% 24.9% 15.3% Consensus: 3.5% 13.1% 7.9% 5.6% 2.1% 6.6% 13.6% 14.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 08/25/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 08/25/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 43 50 56 37 41 44 44 46 34 29 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 40 47 53 34 38 41 41 43 31 26 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 42 48 29 33 36 36 38 26 21 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 34 40 21 25 28 28 30 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT