* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 08/25/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 39 51 57 61 63 64 63 65 65 66 65 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 39 51 57 37 30 33 32 34 34 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 28 31 36 30 28 32 35 36 35 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 5 8 8 8 5 7 7 8 16 15 28 27 27 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 0 0 -5 -5 -5 -5 -1 0 3 2 4 4 2 -7 SHEAR DIR 266 276 210 219 234 182 137 114 14 38 23 351 338 316 302 272 297 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.4 28.7 28.4 30.0 30.4 31.6 31.1 31.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 144 146 144 144 144 146 148 157 146 143 171 173 173 171 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 143 143 141 140 138 138 138 145 133 131 160 162 173 162 157 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -51.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 7 6 5 6 4 6 5 8 7 9 7 6 3 6 2 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 71 71 75 75 76 74 74 72 71 73 73 73 71 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 104 104 107 102 98 90 82 67 80 61 58 37 30 5 60 71 200 MB DIV 80 99 106 106 113 83 106 99 70 56 20 33 50 56 38 103 39 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 4 8 4 0 2 -2 1 2 27 33 45 37 28 -1 LAND (KM) 175 312 430 423 323 126 88 187 15 -118 -76 133 403 166 3 -221 -375 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.6 16.6 17.5 18.2 19.2 20.5 22.4 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.4 77.1 78.3 79.3 80.2 82.2 84.2 85.9 87.6 88.8 89.5 89.7 89.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 15 12 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 8 11 14 13 13 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 26 34 28 22 32 44 38 17 12 17 38 75 48 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 971 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 40. 43. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. 2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 26. 32. 36. 38. 39. 38. 40. 40. 41. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 75.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 08/25/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.61 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 11.0% 7.4% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 11.6% 7.3% 3.7% 0.5% 3.4% 7.5% 17.6% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 2.3% 8.8% 14.2% Consensus: 1.9% 7.8% 5.1% 3.2% 0.2% 1.9% 9.0% 10.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 08/25/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 08/25/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 32 39 51 57 37 30 33 32 34 34 28 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 38 50 56 36 29 32 31 33 33 27 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 34 46 52 32 25 28 27 29 29 23 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 27 39 45 25 18 21 20 22 22 16 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT