* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 08/25/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 38 41 44 46 50 53 56 58 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 38 41 32 36 40 43 45 48 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 27 27 26 25 25 25 29 32 36 41 45 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 15 17 19 19 20 16 13 12 1 11 14 15 20 18 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 0 -2 -3 1 1 -2 6 0 4 3 5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 233 241 237 239 238 244 221 207 208 151 237 68 339 355 317 300 293 SST (C) 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 29.2 29.0 28.0 28.4 29.4 29.9 30.2 31.4 31.7 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 146 147 147 145 144 145 156 152 136 141 157 167 172 173 173 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 146 147 145 143 140 140 149 143 125 127 140 151 160 173 173 162 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 8 7 7 6 7 6 8 7 8 8 8 6 6 2 700-500 MB RH 70 69 65 65 66 68 71 71 73 72 72 71 70 71 69 78 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 88 97 101 101 96 78 75 82 69 70 56 36 33 -20 45 13 200 MB DIV 66 77 74 94 89 65 62 93 97 84 58 91 50 58 16 71 56 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 6 11 10 5 0 -3 -5 0 5 17 20 50 32 34 LAND (KM) 56 227 360 302 212 154 382 233 65 -53 46 193 349 342 37 -158 -414 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 17.3 18.6 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.4 22.4 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.7 73.4 74.7 75.9 77.0 79.4 81.9 84.3 86.6 88.8 90.4 91.4 91.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 14 13 13 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 9 13 15 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 19 32 48 59 57 41 57 119 39 21 24 36 58 59 42 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 784 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 40. 42. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 71.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 08/25/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 14.0% 8.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 10.0% 4.7% 1.4% 0.3% 2.8% 5.6% 7.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 3.4% 2.6% 0.4% 0.2% 1.9% 8.3% 3.6% Consensus: 3.1% 9.2% 5.3% 2.8% 0.2% 1.6% 7.8% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 08/25/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 08/25/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 38 41 32 36 40 43 45 48 34 29 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 31 36 39 30 34 38 41 43 46 32 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 28 33 36 27 31 35 38 40 43 29 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 21 26 29 20 24 28 31 33 36 22 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT