* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 07/16/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 27 26 24 23 24 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 27 26 24 23 24 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 24 26 27 26 23 21 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 19 23 26 23 24 21 18 6 30 46 49 48 44 44 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -1 -3 -6 -3 -2 0 -4 3 7 -1 2 0 3 7 0 SHEAR DIR 343 2 11 19 30 47 42 26 35 267 256 252 246 249 254 256 274 SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.1 24.6 25.2 19.3 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.0 23.2 21.9 21.0 20.3 19.2 23.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 105 102 106 77 95 99 101 102 98 91 86 84 82 101 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 90 87 85 88 70 82 87 90 93 91 85 80 78 77 91 142 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.8 -56.7 -56.9 -57.4 -57.6 -57.5 -57.2 -56.5 -55.5 -54.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 1 6 2 700-500 MB RH 46 49 47 48 50 52 55 57 51 39 30 25 20 21 29 31 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -87 -90 -104 -107 -98 -72 -70 -47 -38 -13 -17 -54 -37 -3 4 -22 -18 200 MB DIV -13 -1 -8 -13 3 -19 -7 -37 -9 -15 -21 -1 13 11 6 15 0 700-850 TADV 8 6 10 15 10 16 15 17 23 4 -9 -23 -27 -64 -60 -25 35 LAND (KM) 733 696 676 675 633 641 776 1040 1410 1835 1763 1233 775 353 -79 -121 58 LAT (DEG N) 39.2 39.8 40.4 40.7 41.0 41.1 40.6 39.5 38.0 36.7 35.8 35.2 35.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.5 56.9 56.1 55.0 53.8 51.2 48.4 44.9 40.6 35.5 29.2 22.8 17.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 11 12 17 20 23 27 25 20 21 26 26 23 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 798 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 2. -2. -3. -8. -15. -23. -34. -41. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -7. -14. -20. -23. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 39.2 57.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 07/16/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.30 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.13 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 07/16/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 07/16/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 27 26 24 23 24 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 25 24 22 21 22 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 22 21 19 18 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT