* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 07/16/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 25 26 27 26 25 23 23 23 25 25 24 23 21 23 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 25 26 27 26 25 23 23 23 25 25 24 23 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 22 23 25 27 29 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 16 15 18 22 25 26 25 20 11 7 15 28 33 34 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -7 -5 -5 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 343 345 358 11 17 46 54 72 90 106 122 170 231 234 243 254 255 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.2 25.5 24.6 24.6 25.0 25.2 24.9 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 110 110 105 108 101 102 105 107 105 109 105 102 104 105 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 89 90 90 87 89 85 86 89 90 89 93 91 89 90 92 93 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.2 -56.3 -56.6 -56.6 -57.1 -57.3 -57.4 -56.9 -56.6 -56.5 -56.4 -55.9 -55.2 -54.1 -53.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 44 48 51 49 49 50 50 53 51 47 39 36 33 30 25 25 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -76 -83 -87 -103 -112 -102 -76 -77 -85 -88 -87 -96 -95 -98 -86 -68 -66 200 MB DIV -19 -11 5 -13 -16 10 -24 -21 -26 -2 -32 -21 -55 -18 -37 -30 -20 700-850 TADV 6 7 6 8 10 9 8 10 9 8 0 6 -7 -2 -10 -6 -12 LAND (KM) 822 795 771 764 788 767 812 918 1065 1244 1433 1644 1866 2103 2038 1934 1891 LAT (DEG N) 38.2 38.6 39.0 39.4 39.6 39.8 39.5 38.9 38.2 37.4 36.7 35.8 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.0 57.5 57.0 56.2 55.3 53.4 51.4 49.4 47.1 44.7 42.2 39.8 37.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 7. 3. -1. -5. -8. -8. -11. -16. -21. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 38.2 58.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 07/16/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.30 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 07/16/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 07/16/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 25 26 27 26 25 23 23 23 25 25 24 23 21 23 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 27 26 25 23 23 23 25 25 24 23 21 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 23 22 21 19 19 19 21 21 20 19 17 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT