* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 07/15/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 26 25 26 27 29 30 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 26 25 26 27 29 30 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 28 31 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 15 14 21 21 27 28 25 19 9 1 8 19 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 0 -3 -3 -6 -6 -9 -7 -4 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 350 344 348 4 15 30 42 68 98 114 115 90 173 266 259 261 259 SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.8 26.1 26.5 24.9 25.5 24.8 25.2 24.7 24.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 106 107 107 108 109 108 109 110 114 118 104 110 104 108 103 103 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 86 87 89 90 89 90 91 94 97 89 93 89 93 89 89 88 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.8 -55.9 -56.2 -56.4 -56.7 -57.2 -57.3 -57.1 -56.8 -56.5 -56.5 -56.1 -55.9 -55.3 -54.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 43 45 49 51 51 53 51 52 53 51 51 50 45 41 33 28 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -70 -77 -80 -92 -97 -82 -78 -80 -102 -114 -108 -99 -113 -121 -121 -124 200 MB DIV -9 -18 -3 3 -16 -4 -26 -15 -29 -20 -19 -24 -28 -46 -30 -58 -34 700-850 TADV 2 5 6 4 6 7 11 8 6 4 4 4 -2 5 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 881 865 851 820 812 853 878 950 1015 1107 1194 1339 1535 1788 2032 2116 2089 LAT (DEG N) 37.5 37.7 37.9 38.3 38.6 38.9 38.8 38.2 37.8 37.4 37.3 37.0 36.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.6 58.4 58.1 57.7 57.0 55.3 53.6 51.9 50.3 48.3 46.1 43.5 40.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 11 12 10 8 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 14. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 4. -0. -4. -8. -10. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 37.5 58.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 07/15/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.29 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.27 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 07/15/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 07/15/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 26 25 26 27 29 30 30 31 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 26 25 26 27 29 30 30 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 23 23 23 22 22 21 22 23 25 26 26 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT