* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 07/15/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 30 31 34 37 40 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 30 31 34 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 32 34 36 38 41 44 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 13 14 16 21 20 22 25 15 7 12 8 1 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 0 -1 0 -3 -5 -5 -8 -6 -3 -3 -3 0 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 347 355 345 349 7 13 38 63 96 120 123 70 52 27 231 253 274 SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.5 25.1 25.5 24.9 24.4 23.9 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 106 107 109 109 110 111 113 113 118 106 110 106 102 99 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 84 86 87 89 89 90 91 92 93 98 91 95 93 90 88 90 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.9 -55.7 -55.8 -56.0 -56.5 -56.9 -56.9 -56.9 -56.7 -56.7 -56.8 -57.0 -56.5 -56.1 -55.2 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 44 44 47 49 52 51 54 53 52 51 54 55 55 50 44 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -52 -67 -70 -76 -88 -82 -79 -79 -69 -68 -76 -77 -76 -62 -51 -53 200 MB DIV 10 -8 -33 -4 1 -32 -19 -28 -21 -17 12 -21 -15 -54 -43 -35 -16 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 4 2 7 7 7 5 1 2 -2 8 4 3 -3 1 LAND (KM) 900 885 873 867 846 835 900 967 1035 1071 1132 1208 1353 1577 1878 2012 1690 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.2 37.4 37.6 37.9 38.4 38.4 38.0 37.4 37.2 37.0 37.0 36.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.0 59.1 59.0 58.7 58.3 56.9 55.3 53.8 52.4 50.9 48.9 46.5 43.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 9 11 13 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 37.1 59.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 07/15/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.24 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 7.6% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 07/15/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 07/15/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 31 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 30 31 34 37 40 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 30 29 29 29 29 29 30 30 29 30 33 36 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 26 27 30 33 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 20 21 24 27 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT