* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992021 07/15/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 28 28 29 29 28 28 28 29 29 31 33 32 28 25 V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 28 28 29 29 28 28 28 29 29 31 33 32 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 26 26 27 27 28 28 29 30 31 35 38 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 12 14 12 13 17 18 21 22 18 11 1 15 33 47 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 1 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -4 -4 -5 -7 0 1 2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 345 348 350 346 350 13 26 45 66 95 108 103 232 261 254 247 247 SST (C) 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.5 25.9 25.9 25.8 26.1 26.2 26.5 25.7 25.9 23.7 22.5 22.1 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 104 104 106 111 111 111 113 115 118 112 115 100 94 92 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 84 84 85 86 91 91 91 93 95 98 95 100 91 86 85 83 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.7 -56.0 -55.8 -55.9 -56.5 -56.8 -57.1 -57.1 -56.8 -56.6 -56.6 -56.7 -55.9 -54.6 -52.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 42 44 45 46 49 51 55 56 56 56 56 54 56 48 43 34 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -47 -50 -67 -70 -86 -85 -66 -62 -59 -76 -74 -56 -33 -47 -51 -55 200 MB DIV 2 10 -11 -31 -9 -4 -10 -27 -22 -7 -7 0 6 -3 -7 -30 -13 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 4 3 6 6 10 9 8 5 0 0 -16 -7 -25 -29 LAND (KM) 900 884 870 871 864 822 844 937 989 1056 1134 1228 1368 1627 2032 1562 1067 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.1 37.2 37.3 37.5 38.2 38.5 38.3 37.8 37.3 36.9 36.7 36.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.0 59.3 59.4 59.2 59.0 58.0 56.4 54.7 52.9 51.2 49.3 46.8 43.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 2 3 6 6 7 7 8 9 12 16 22 24 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -5. -7. -11. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 3. 2. -2. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 37.1 59.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992021 INVEST 07/15/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.22 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992021 INVEST 07/15/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992021 INVEST 07/15/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 28 28 28 29 29 28 28 28 29 29 31 33 32 28 25 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 30 30 29 29 29 30 30 32 34 33 29 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 27 27 26 26 26 27 27 29 31 30 26 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 21 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 24 20 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT