* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992020 11/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 34 32 30 29 35 42 42 37 31 25 24 24 30 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 34 32 30 29 35 42 42 37 31 25 24 24 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 27 26 23 22 22 27 36 42 41 39 38 39 39 41 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 50 55 55 46 47 39 22 12 12 21 32 23 28 23 20 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -1 0 0 2 -5 -1 0 10 6 13 18 20 12 8 3 SHEAR DIR 318 313 307 303 291 286 295 320 217 183 212 251 290 314 300 263 260 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.5 25.8 25.7 25.2 23.7 22.1 21.5 18.1 18.8 18.5 18.7 19.4 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 111 114 117 112 112 109 99 90 86 74 76 78 79 79 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 96 96 99 103 100 102 99 90 82 76 68 69 72 73 73 72 200 MB T (C) -58.1 -57.6 -57.1 -56.4 -55.4 -54.2 -56.2 -58.5 -59.9 -60.6 -60.6 -61.0 -61.0 -61.3 -61.5 -61.1 -60.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 2.5 1.7 0.0 0.3 -0.7 0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 42 41 42 43 47 55 59 67 66 54 45 44 46 46 40 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 9 12 17 17 14 11 7 7 7 11 850 MB ENV VOR 63 59 69 74 74 63 25 21 27 17 -51 -110 -124 -169 -178 -190 -180 200 MB DIV -12 -7 -25 -14 -6 12 15 29 57 77 46 -49 -72 -58 -17 -20 -4 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -3 1 0 3 9 8 12 17 12 10 14 -7 -16 -19 -6 LAND (KM) 1219 1136 1078 1056 1090 1255 1545 1867 1590 1242 964 771 707 975 1434 1831 2040 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 26.5 25.9 25.4 25.2 25.7 27.3 29.6 32.6 36.2 39.3 41.5 43.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.6 59.1 59.2 58.9 58.2 56.5 54.2 52.1 49.9 48.0 46.9 46.7 45.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 11 14 17 19 19 13 10 11 19 21 16 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -8. -15. -18. -22. -28. -31. -33. -37. -40. -38. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 25. 27. 28. 27. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -7. -1. -1. -7. -12. -16. -16. -15. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -1. 5. 12. 12. 7. 1. -5. -6. -6. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.1 58.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992020 INVEST 11/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992020 INVEST 11/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992020 INVEST 11/27/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 34 32 30 29 35 42 42 37 31 25 24 24 30 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 29 27 26 32 39 39 34 28 22 21 21 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 25 23 22 28 35 35 30 24 18 17 17 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 18 16 15 21 28 28 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT