* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992019 09/22/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 48 52 54 56 59 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 48 50 52 54 58 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 33 33 34 36 39 43 49 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 21 26 23 26 31 22 16 7 5 11 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 2 -1 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 -1 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 352 2 16 30 46 37 40 29 4 68 119 138 161 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 159 157 159 163 162 160 162 163 163 161 161 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 159 155 156 159 157 154 154 152 148 144 142 137 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 68 70 69 67 68 72 69 66 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 11 10 9 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 19 11 12 4 -5 0 0 -12 -14 -27 -22 200 MB DIV 22 34 66 83 56 20 18 14 36 25 34 33 53 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -7 -6 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 204 178 231 272 311 417 236 51 100 278 411 555 688 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 48 51 56 58 60 79 74 85 74 62 37 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 763 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 29. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 59.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992019 INVEST 09/22/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.91 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 17.9% 12.0% 7.9% 6.8% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 6.4% 3.8% 3.2% 1.4% 2.8% 0.9% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 3.1% 10.6% Consensus: 2.7% 8.3% 5.5% 3.7% 2.7% 4.3% 1.4% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992019 INVEST 09/22/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992019 INVEST 09/22/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 48 50 52 54 58 61 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 37 41 46 48 50 52 56 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 33 37 42 44 46 48 52 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 30 35 37 39 41 45 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT