* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952021 06/28/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 39 41 42 42 42 44 45 46 49 51 52 56 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 39 41 42 42 37 38 39 40 43 45 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 35 35 36 36 32 33 33 33 33 35 38 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 7 4 14 13 17 19 26 24 24 21 14 16 21 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 2 0 0 -1 3 5 6 3 4 5 6 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 201 219 237 242 198 219 230 233 272 286 313 307 338 339 355 11 26 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.9 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.6 28.5 27.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 121 121 121 126 133 135 139 141 145 150 153 154 145 144 134 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 121 121 126 133 135 139 141 145 147 145 140 127 125 120 106 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 60 63 62 64 63 60 61 62 64 67 65 57 57 59 65 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 71 70 72 66 48 34 19 21 5 -52 -106 -147 -199 -144 -128 -127 200 MB DIV 28 32 36 25 24 33 -4 14 22 15 7 -2 5 -13 24 4 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -3 0 0 0 0 6 10 2 1 -4 1 6 28 LAND (KM) 1253 1131 1018 932 868 765 452 467 144 -4 33 88 195 62 109 296 359 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.9 14.9 16.6 18.4 20.5 22.4 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.3 45.3 47.1 48.9 50.7 54.4 58.3 62.5 66.8 70.8 74.3 77.0 78.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 18 18 18 19 20 22 22 21 17 14 11 9 9 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 4 3 14 22 39 46 29 18 24 28 38 32 33 20 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 14. 15. 16. 19. 21. 22. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 43.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952021 INVEST 06/28/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 12.5% 8.5% 7.6% 5.3% 9.0% 9.4% 11.9% Logistic: 2.0% 9.0% 4.7% 2.1% 0.7% 4.1% 5.4% 13.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% Consensus: 2.1% 8.1% 4.6% 3.2% 2.0% 4.5% 5.0% 8.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952021 INVEST 06/28/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952021 INVEST 06/28/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 36 39 41 42 42 37 38 39 40 43 45 46 49 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 37 39 40 40 35 36 37 38 41 43 44 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 32 34 35 35 30 31 32 33 36 38 39 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 26 27 27 22 23 24 25 28 30 31 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT