* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952020 09/11/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 46 55 65 75 86 90 96 99 95 90 92 95 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 46 55 65 75 86 90 96 99 95 90 92 95 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 40 48 56 67 79 86 86 81 73 69 71 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 20 16 12 8 8 9 11 15 22 25 22 15 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -4 -6 -4 -1 0 3 0 3 4 3 1 2 2 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 64 62 78 70 78 93 107 100 117 184 237 255 261 260 276 278 298 SST (C) 27.3 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 138 135 133 132 135 139 142 135 136 139 135 136 140 139 145 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 138 134 129 127 131 137 142 133 133 136 131 133 135 131 136 139 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 80 78 79 77 77 77 74 73 65 63 62 64 60 56 53 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 16 18 20 21 26 28 30 33 34 31 32 33 850 MB ENV VOR 100 99 93 107 112 126 126 113 67 51 39 38 63 67 61 77 98 200 MB DIV 46 14 3 -1 4 35 83 120 122 126 101 63 63 40 49 21 23 700-850 TADV 0 -2 3 0 1 3 0 3 0 -2 -4 0 6 6 5 2 4 LAND (KM) 1130 1332 1467 1572 1635 1755 1756 1774 1681 1586 1550 1540 1533 1395 1104 816 604 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.9 14.9 16.2 17.6 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.3 29.3 30.6 31.6 32.2 33.5 35.0 37.1 39.6 41.9 44.1 46.6 49.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 21 16 11 8 6 7 9 12 12 12 13 15 16 16 13 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 13 9 8 7 8 11 13 12 10 15 18 17 38 37 47 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 256 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 12. 14. 16. 20. 18. 14. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 3. 3. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 21. 30. 40. 50. 61. 65. 71. 74. 70. 65. 67. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 27.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952020 INVEST 09/11/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 17.0% 12.2% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 16.1% 7.9% 2.1% 1.4% 7.9% 12.4% 27.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 14.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 2.0% 4.0% 24.6% Consensus: 3.0% 15.8% 7.1% 3.8% 0.5% 3.3% 8.9% 17.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952020 INVEST 09/11/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 36 46 55 65 75 86 90 96 99 95 90 92 95 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 33 43 52 62 72 83 87 93 96 92 87 89 92 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 38 47 57 67 78 82 88 91 87 82 84 87 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 28 37 47 57 68 72 78 81 77 72 74 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT