* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 10/11/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 25 24 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 43 45 48 52 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 25 24 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 43 45 48 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 21 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 25 27 25 21 19 20 16 17 22 17 15 14 16 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 3 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 295 305 308 319 335 323 324 316 327 316 322 312 287 331 6 13 3 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 150 148 149 148 146 145 145 146 144 140 134 137 137 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 156 147 142 142 139 133 130 132 135 133 129 122 126 127 123 117 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 71 72 70 70 70 65 71 70 71 68 70 70 72 67 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -15 -32 -44 -44 -55 -55 -58 -40 -24 -35 -43 -49 -38 -14 -5 -1 200 MB DIV 21 19 30 38 39 -9 19 31 26 25 24 19 0 3 25 -18 -2 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -11 -11 -3 -2 2 2 7 9 12 9 9 7 6 3 1 LAND (KM) 538 482 465 474 502 481 378 360 413 549 718 866 958 1059 1206 1330 1386 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.9 14.5 14.9 15.3 16.1 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.2 18.2 18.1 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.7 57.9 59.0 59.8 60.6 61.8 62.4 62.4 61.8 60.5 58.9 57.5 56.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 10 9 8 6 4 3 5 7 7 7 6 7 8 5 2 HEAT CONTENT 60 48 38 35 33 34 40 41 38 34 36 50 38 32 38 47 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 6. 9. 13. 15. 18. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 56.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 10/11/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.17 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.06 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.9% 3.9% 2.9% 1.3% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 1.7% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 2.1% 0.6% 2.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932021 INVEST 10/11/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 10/11/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 27 26 25 24 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 43 45 48 52 18HR AGO 30 29 27 26 25 24 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 43 45 48 52 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 23 24 25 27 29 31 35 38 42 44 47 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 19 20 22 24 26 30 33 37 39 42 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT