* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 10/11/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 27 27 29 31 34 36 39 42 46 51 55 58 61 65 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 27 27 29 31 34 36 39 42 46 51 55 58 61 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 26 25 25 25 25 27 29 31 34 38 42 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 22 21 24 20 18 16 15 14 16 12 9 13 11 11 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 1 5 5 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 -1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 299 308 311 313 323 347 331 326 325 328 344 345 300 322 356 41 19 SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 162 159 155 153 151 150 147 147 146 147 144 137 138 137 139 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 162 159 154 150 144 140 134 133 134 137 133 126 126 125 127 131 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 65 69 72 74 72 72 69 70 71 68 68 69 63 67 64 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -2 -10 -23 -31 -30 -44 -41 -39 -19 -27 -32 -39 -38 -44 -30 -30 200 MB DIV -3 21 26 36 36 15 5 45 24 14 10 -18 -10 -10 -5 0 -19 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -4 -5 -1 0 0 1 4 6 5 4 3 2 1 -2 LAND (KM) 597 514 422 374 356 433 499 406 378 427 547 704 790 809 860 930 954 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.7 15.5 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.5 17.5 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.2 56.5 57.7 58.7 59.6 61.0 62.0 62.5 62.5 61.8 60.6 59.1 57.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 10 9 7 5 3 3 5 7 7 5 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 58 59 48 40 37 35 38 41 41 34 31 30 35 39 39 35 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. 36. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -3. -1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 55.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 10/11/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.83 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 8.0% 5.6% 5.1% 3.5% 6.4% 6.6% 10.0% Logistic: 2.7% 6.7% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6% 1.6% 4.7% 13.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 1.9% 5.1% 3.1% 2.2% 1.4% 2.7% 3.8% 7.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932021 INVEST 10/11/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 10/11/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 27 27 29 31 34 36 39 42 46 51 55 58 61 65 18HR AGO 30 29 28 26 26 28 30 33 35 38 41 45 50 54 57 60 64 12HR AGO 30 27 26 24 24 26 28 31 33 36 39 43 48 52 55 58 62 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 24 27 29 32 35 39 44 48 51 54 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT