* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 10/11/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 29 30 32 34 36 38 40 45 51 56 58 62 66 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 29 30 32 34 36 38 40 45 51 56 58 62 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 27 26 25 26 26 28 30 33 36 40 45 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 24 23 22 22 27 19 16 16 12 14 13 8 8 9 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 2 3 2 2 6 0 3 1 0 0 3 -3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 292 299 309 314 319 343 349 346 335 333 334 348 343 267 302 353 44 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 158 161 157 155 153 151 150 150 147 146 144 140 135 137 138 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 158 161 157 154 147 141 138 136 135 135 134 129 125 127 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 65 67 70 73 76 75 73 68 71 68 71 69 70 66 67 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -21 -6 -12 -19 -30 -46 -53 -49 -27 -23 -16 -28 -43 -53 -49 -31 200 MB DIV 6 10 28 33 38 51 12 16 26 28 24 18 -6 3 -25 19 -24 700-850 TADV 5 0 -2 -3 -4 1 0 2 2 5 7 9 7 7 4 4 1 LAND (KM) 629 584 507 422 374 409 511 496 459 488 572 702 850 922 1008 1124 1214 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.4 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.4 56.6 57.7 58.7 60.2 61.1 61.7 61.8 61.3 60.4 59.1 57.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 5 4 3 4 5 7 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 59 58 55 47 41 38 36 37 37 33 32 32 47 37 27 37 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 15. 21. 26. 28. 32. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.4 54.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 10/11/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.83 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.8% 8.1% 7.1% 5.2% 7.9% 7.4% 9.7% Logistic: 5.6% 23.0% 15.2% 9.4% 5.1% 7.2% 7.7% 21.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 3.6% 12.2% 7.9% 5.5% 3.4% 5.0% 5.0% 10.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932021 INVEST 10/11/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 10/11/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 29 30 32 34 36 38 40 45 51 56 58 62 66 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 28 29 31 33 35 37 39 44 50 55 57 61 65 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 26 28 30 32 34 36 41 47 52 54 58 62 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 20 22 24 26 28 30 35 41 46 48 52 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT