* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932021 10/10/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 34 35 34 34 34 33 34 38 42 46 48 50 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 34 35 34 34 34 33 34 38 42 46 48 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 34 35 34 32 30 29 28 28 29 31 33 36 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 19 24 25 25 25 25 20 20 16 13 15 14 16 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 3 7 1 6 1 2 1 0 -1 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 324 312 301 304 304 315 331 343 342 330 332 324 337 324 267 265 262 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 153 151 154 155 147 144 142 141 143 142 138 134 134 138 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 156 153 151 154 151 139 132 127 126 130 131 128 123 123 126 126 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 66 71 76 75 75 68 70 69 73 71 71 64 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -7 -28 -34 -14 -21 -30 -55 -56 -44 -36 -28 -26 -37 -43 -29 -21 200 MB DIV 62 57 41 10 26 61 56 18 9 11 42 32 31 8 17 30 20 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 3 4 -1 -1 1 3 0 3 9 12 8 7 6 1 LAND (KM) 648 625 649 664 634 537 530 582 617 614 635 718 845 949 1042 1114 1160 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.7 13.9 14.9 15.7 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.9 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.9 52.1 53.3 54.5 55.5 57.2 58.5 59.1 59.3 59.4 59.4 58.8 57.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 12 11 9 7 3 1 0 3 6 7 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 44 50 55 56 57 56 40 35 32 32 32 30 46 38 26 32 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 35. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -6. -9. -11. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 50.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932021 INVEST 10/10/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.81 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.9% 10.1% 8.4% 6.2% 9.3% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 38.7% 25.1% 10.3% 5.3% 9.0% 9.6% 21.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 19.6% 12.0% 6.3% 3.8% 6.2% 6.4% 7.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932021 INVEST 10/10/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932021 INVEST 10/10/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 34 35 34 34 34 33 34 38 42 46 48 50 52 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 32 31 31 31 30 31 35 39 43 45 47 49 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 28 27 27 27 26 27 31 35 39 41 43 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 20 20 20 19 20 24 28 32 34 36 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT